Projecting the development of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae from antimicrobial surveillance data: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends changing the first-line antimicrobial treatment for gonorrhoea when ≥ 5% of Neisseria gonorrhoeae cases fail treatment or are resistant. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone, the last remaining treatment option has been decreasing in many countries. We used antimicrobial resistance surveillance data and developed mathematical models to project the time to reach the 5% threshold for resistance to first-line antimicrobials used for N. gonorrhoeae. METHODS: We used data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) in England and Wales from 2000-2018 about minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) for ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime and ceftriaxone and antimicrobial treatment in two groups, heterosexual men and women (HMW) and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed two susceptible-infected-susceptible models to fit these data and produce projections of the proportion of resistance until 2030. The single-step model represents the situation in which a single mutation results in antimicrobial resistance. In the multi-step model, the sequential accumulation of resistance mutations is reflected by changes in the MIC distribution. RESULTS: The single-step model described resistance to ciprofloxacin well. Both single-step and multi-step models could describe azithromycin and cefixime resistance, with projected resistance levels higher with the multi-step than the single step model. For ceftriaxone, with very few observed cases of full resistance, the multi-step model was needed to describe long-term dynamics of resistance. Extrapolating from the observed upward drift in MIC values, the multi-step model projected ≥ 5% resistance to ceftriaxone could be reached by 2030, based on treatment pressure alone. Ceftriaxone resistance was projected to rise to 13.2% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.7-44.8%) among HMW and 19.6% (95%CrI: 2.6-54.4%) among MSM by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: New first-line antimicrobials for gonorrhoea treatment are needed. In the meantime, public health authorities should strengthen surveillance for AMR in N. gonorrhoeae and implement strategies for continued antimicrobial stewardship. Our models show the utility of long-term representative surveillance of gonococcal antimicrobial susceptibility data and can be adapted for use in, and for comparison with, other countries.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect access to condoms, chlamydia and HIV testing, and cervical cancer screening at a population level in Britain? (Natsal-COVID).

OBJECTIVES: To investigate how differential access to key interventions to reduce STIs, HIV and their sequelae changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: British participants (18-59 years) completed a cross-sectional web survey 1 year (March-April 2021) after the initial lockdown in Britain. Quota-based sampling and weighting resulted in a quasi-representative population sample. We compared Natsal-COVID data with Natsal-3, a household-based probability sample cross-sectional survey (16-74 years) conducted in 2010-2012. Reported unmet need for condoms because of the pandemic and uptake of chlamydia testing/HIV testing/cervical cancer screening were analysed among sexually experienced participants (18-44 years) (n=3869, Natsal-COVID; n=8551, Natsal-3). ORs adjusted for age and other potential confounders describe associations with demographic and behavioural factors. RESULTS: In 2021, 6.9% of women and 16.2% of men reported unmet need for condoms because of the pandemic. This was more likely among participants: aged 18-24 years, of black or black British ethnicity, and reporting same-sex sex (past 5 years) or one or more new relationships (past year). Chlamydia and HIV testing were more commonly reported by younger participants, those reporting condomless sex with new sexual partners and men reporting same-sex partners; a very similar distribution to 10 years previously (Natsal-3). However, there were differences during the pandemic, including stronger associations with chlamydia testing for men reporting same-sex partners; with HIV testing for women reporting new sexual partners and with cervical screening among smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests differential access to key primary and secondary STI/HIV prevention interventions continued during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there was not strong evidence that differential access has changed during the pandemic when compared with 2010-2012. While the pandemic might not have exacerbated inequalities in access to primary and secondary prevention, it is clear that large inequalities persisted, typically among those at greatest STI/HIV risk.

Sexual and reproductive health in Britain during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: cross-sectional population survey (Natsal-COVID-Wave 2) and national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: To assess sexual behaviour, and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, after 1 year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Britain. METHODS: 6658 participants aged 18-59 and resident in Britain completed a cross-sectional web-panel survey (Natsal-COVID-Wave 2, March-April 2021), 1 year after the first lockdown. Natsal-COVID-2 follows the Natsal-COVID-Wave 1 survey (July-August 2020) which captured impacts in the initial months. Quota-based sampling and weighting resulted in a quasi-representative population sample. Data were contextualised with reference to the most recent probability sample population data (Natsal-3; collected 2010-12; 15 162 participants aged 16-74) and national surveillance data on recorded sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing, conceptions, and abortions in England/Wales (2010-2020). The main outcomes were: sexual behaviour; SRH service use; pregnancy, abortion and fertility management; sexual dissatisfaction, distress and difficulties. RESULTS: In the year from the first lockdown, over two-thirds of participants reported one or more sexual partners (women 71.8%; men 69.9%), while fewer than 20.0% reported a new partner (women 10.4%; men 16.8%). Median occasions of sex per month was two. Compared with 2010-12 (Natsal-3), we found less sexual risk behaviour (lower reporting of multiple partners, new partners, and new condomless partners), including among younger participants and those reporting same-sex behaviour. One in 10 women reported a pregnancy; pregnancies were fewer than in 2010-12 and less likely to be scored as unplanned. 19.3% of women and 22.8% of men were distressed or worried about their sex life, significantly more than in 2010-12. Compared with surveillance trends from 2010 to 2019, we found lower than expected use of STI-related services and HIV testing, lower levels of chlamydia testing, and fewer conceptions and abortions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with significant changes in sexual behaviour, SRH, and service uptake in the year following the first lockdown in Britain. These data are foundational to SRH recovery and policy planning.

The European response to control and manage multi- and extensively drug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae.

Because cefixime and ceftriaxone resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae and gonorrhoea treatment failures were increasing, a response plan to control and manage multidrug-resistant N. gonorrhoeae (MDR-NG) in Europe was published in 2012. The three main areas of the plan were to: (i) strengthen surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), (ii) implement monitoring of treatment failures and (iii) establish a communication strategy to increase awareness and disseminate AMR results. Since 2012, several additional extensively drug-resistant N. gonorrhoeae (XDR-NG) strains have emerged, and strains with high-level ceftriaxone resistance spread internationally. This prompted an evaluation and review of the 2012 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) response plan, revealing an overall improvement in many aspects of monitoring AMR in N. gonorrhoeae; however, treatment failure monitoring was a weakness. Accordingly, the plan was updated in 2019 to further support European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries in controlling and managing the threat of MDR/XDR-NG in Europe through further strengthening of AMR surveillance and clinical management including treatment failure monitoring. The plan will be assessed biennially to ensure its effectiveness and its value. Along with prevention, diagnostic, treatment and epidemiological surveillance strategies, AMR surveillance is essential for effective control of gonorrhoea.

Changes in testing and incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae - the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the three Scandinavian countries.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate what impact the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions had on Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, countries with very different governmental strategies for handling this pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of data collected via requests to Swedish regions and to health authorities in Denmark and Norway. The data were collected for the years 2018-2020 and the data from Sweden were more detailed. RESULTS: When the pandemic restrictions were installed in 2020, the number of reported chlamydia cases decreased. The decline was most pronounced in Norway 10.8% (2019: n = 28,446; 2020: n = 25,444) while it was only 3.1% in Denmark (2019: n = 35,688; 2020: n = 34,689) and 4.3% in Sweden (2019: n = 34,726; 2020: n = 33,339). Nucleic acid amplifications tests for chlamydia decreased in Sweden (10%) and Norway (18%) in 2020 compared to 2019, while in Denmark a 21% decrease was noted in April 2020 but thereafter increased to a higher level than 2019. The number of reported gonorrhoea cases decreased in Sweden (17%) and in Norway (39%) in 2020 compared to 2019, while a 21% increase was noted in Denmark. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic restrictions had an impact on the number of reported chlamydia infections in all three countries, but only temporarily and did not seem to be correlated to the restriction levels. The number of reported gonorrhoea infections in Sweden and Norway significantly decreased but not in Denmark. Pandemic restrictions appear to have had a limited effect on the spread of chlamydia and gonorrhoea.

Intimate physical contact between people from different households during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods study from a large, quasi-representative survey (Natsal-COVID).

OBJECTIVES: Physical distancing as a non-pharmaceutical intervention aims to reduce interactions between people to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Intimate physical contact outside the household (IPCOH) may expand transmission networks by connecting households. We aimed to explore whether intimacy needs impacted adherence to physical distancing following lockdown in Britain in March 2020. METHODS: The Natsal-COVID web-panel survey (July-August 2020) used quota-sampling and weighting to achieve a quasi-representative population sample. We estimate reporting of IPCOH with a romantic/sexual partner in the 4 weeks prior to interview, describe the type of contact, identify demographic and behavioural factors associated with IPCOH and present age-adjusted ORs (aORs). Qualitative interviews (n=18) were conducted to understand the context, reasons and decision making around IPCOH. RESULTS: Of 6654 participants aged 18-59 years, 9.9% (95% CI 9.1% to 10.6%) reported IPCOH. IPCOH was highest in those aged 18-24 (17.7%), identifying as gay or lesbian (19.5%), and in steady non-cohabiting relationships (56.3%). IPCOH was associated with reporting risk behaviours (eg, condomless sex, higher alcohol consumption). IPCOH was less likely among those reporting bad/very bad health (aOR 0.54; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.93) but more likely among those with COVID-19 symptoms and/or diagnosis (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.65). Two-thirds (64.4%) of IPCOH was reported as being within a support bubble. Qualitative interviews found that people reporting IPCOH deliberated over, and made efforts to mitigate, the risks. CONCLUSIONS: Given 90% of people did not report IPCOH, this contact may not be a large additional contributor to SARS-CoV-2 transmission, although heterogeneity exists within the population. Public health messages need to recognise how single people and partners living apart balance sexual intimacy and relationship needs with adherence to control measures.

Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on sexual and reproductive health service use and unmet need in Britain: findings from a quasi-representative survey (Natsal-COVID).

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected sexual and reproductive health (SRH) service use and unmet need, but the impact is unknown. We aimed to determine the proportion of participants reporting sexual risk behaviours, SRH service use and unmet need, and to assess remote sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing service use after the first national lockdown in Britain. METHODS: We used data from the National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal)-COVID cross-sectional, quasi-representative web survey (Natsal-COVID Wave 1). Adults aged 18-59 years who resided in England, Scotland, or Wales completed the survey between July 29 and Aug 10, 2020, which included questions about the approximate 4-month period after announcement of the initial lockdown in Britain (March 23, 2020). Quota-based sampling and weighting were used to achieve a quasi-representative population sample. Participants aged 45-59 years were excluded from services analysis due to low rates of SRH service use. Among individuals aged 18-44 years, we estimated reported SRH service use and inability to access, and calculated age-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) among sexually experienced individuals (those reporting any sexual partner in their lifetime) and sexually active individuals (those reporting any sexual partner in the past year). Unweighted denominators and weighted estimates are presented hereafter. FINDINGS: 6654 individuals had complete interviews and were included in the analysis. Among 3758 participants aged 18-44 years, 82·0% reported being sexually experienced, and 73·7% reported being sexually active. 20·8% of sexually experienced participants aged 18-44 years reported using SRH services in the 4-month period. Overall, 9·7% of 3108 participants (9·5% of men; 9·9% of women) reported being unable to use a service they needed, although of the participants who reported trying but not being able to use a SRH service at least once, 76·4% of participants also reported an instance of successful use. 5·9% of 1221 sexually active men and 3·6% of 1560 sexually active women reported use of STI-related services and 14·8% of 1728 sexually experienced women reported use of contraceptive services, with SRH service use highest among individuals aged 18-24 years. Sexually active participants reporting condomless sex with new partners since lockdown were much more likely to report using STI-related services than those who did not report condomless sex (aOR 23·8 [95% CI 11·6-48·9]) for men, 10·5 [3·9-28·2] for women) and, among men, were also more likely to have an unsuccessful attempt at STI-service use (aOR 13·3 [5·3-32·9]). Among 106 individuals who reported using STI testing services, 64·4% accessed services remotely (telephone, video, or online). Among 2581 women aged 25-59 years, 2·4% reported cervical screening compared with an estimated 6% in a comparable 4-month period before the pandemic. INTERPRETATION: Many people accessed SRH care during the initial lockdown; however, young people and those reporting sexual risk behaviours reported difficulties in accessing services and thus such services might need to address a backlog of need. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, The Economic and Social Research Council, The National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council/Chief Scientist Office and Public Health Sciences Unit, and UCL Coronavirus Response Fund.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national and regional incidence, epidemiology and diagnostic testing of chlamydia and gonorrhoea in Sweden, 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged the societies and health care systems globally, and resulted in many social and physical distancing restrictions to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These restrictions have also likely affected the frequency of intimate contacts and the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Compared to most other countries, Sweden especially in Spring-Autumn 2020 pursued mainly milder voluntary, that is, not mandatory enforced by laws, recommended restrictions and the impacts of these on society and spread of STIs remain largely unknown. We describe the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national and regional incidence, epidemiology and diagnostic testing of chlamydia and gonorrhoea in Sweden in 2020. Compared to 2019, we found a significant decrease in incidence of chlamydia (-4.5%) and gonorrhoea (-17.5%), and in diagnostic testing (-10.5% for chlamydia, -9.4% for gonorrhoea) in 2020. However, the decrease in chlamydia incidence, which has mainly been decreasing in the last 10 years, was not significant when compared with the average incidence in 2017-2019. The largest decrease in national incidence of both infections was observed among young and heterosexual patients, however, some Swedish regions showed an increased incidence, particularly of chlamydia. Increased "internet-based self-sampling" testing approach partly compensated for a decreased attendance at STI clinics. Studies, including sexual behaviour, prevention, reasons for attending STI health care, STIs in different anatomical sites and management of STIs, are required to elucidate the impact of COVID-19-associated social and physical distancing restrictions on sexual activity and the incidence and epidemiology of chlamydia and gonorrhoea in Sweden.